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NFL Pick of the Week: Week 1

Last year was very good to me as I was able to compile a 13 – 4 record against the spread. It’s very important to stay modest and set realistic goals, so the hope to start the year will just be 9 wins and an above .500 record.

Here in week 1 I’m going to take a look at one of the premier games with the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars. I believe that these two teams are the only two teams that are a threat to the hometown Patriots in the AFC. KC had an amazing season last year just falling short to the Pats in the AFC title game. They will still be a dynamic team, but I would expect at least some regression from their offense. They have also had quite a few distractions with the Kareem Hunt and Tyreke Hill stories. The Jags had a very disappointing season, but still have all of the talent that made them so tough the year before. I do wonder if having a hopeless QB shook their overall confidence, but now at the very least they have a capable QB in Nick Foles. I believe they are chomping at the bit to show they are more like the team from two years ago than they are the team from last season. Their is also some significant reverse line movement in this game. Despite around 70% of the action going the Chief’s way, the line has gone from 4 1/2 down to 3 1/2.

Week 1 pick: Jaguars + 3 1/2

Leans-
Panthers + 2 1/2
Giants + 7
Indy + 6 1/2
Pats – 5 1/2

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