NFL Pick of the Week: Week 2

To recap last week, I took New England and it played out how I expected, although it was a mistake filled game. The game was never in doubt and the Patriots covered the 6 point spread.

Last week I mentioned that it’s normally not wise to bet on games featuring your favorite team. It’s also normally not wise to bet on nationally televised night games like we have tonight.

There is generally an overreaction to the previous week’s results, and that is only amplified in the second week of the season. Last week, the Ravens absolutely destroyed Buffalo at home. It looks impressive, but there’s a good chance that the Bills will be the worst team in the league this year. The Bengals also had an impressive victory with a road win against the Colts. Now the Bengals are at home and the Ravens are on the road, and Thursday night games usually favor the home team anyway. What’s interesting about this game is the spread. After blowing out the Bills, the Ravens opened this game as 3 point favorites. Despite 2/3 of the bets on the Ravens, the spread has moved in the other direction to a pick’em. This is called reverse line movement and it is very alarming when it happens. I will roll with the Bengals.

Week 2 pick: Cincinnati pick’em
Season record: 1-0

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