NFL Pick of the Week: Week 5

To recap last week, the Oakland Raiders edged the Cleveland Browns by 3 points in our second straight back and forth overtime affair. Fortunately I was only giving 2.5 points and that brought my season record to 4-0.

This week, I’ll be going against 2 general principals of mine that I touched on earlier in the season. One was I don’t bet Patriot games due to a lack of objectivity. Second was I don’t bet nationally televised night games when there’s so many more to choose from. I’m jumping on New England-10 against Indianapolis now before the line goes up anymore. NE has absolutely owned the Colts in recents years and I expect that trend to continue. The home team historically does better than average on Thursday nights since they don’t have to travel on the shorter week. On top of that, Indy is coming off a draining 70 minute OT loss against the Texans. For the Pats, Josh Gordon has had another few days to get acclimated to the system, and more importantly, Brady buddy Julian Edelman returns to the field after his 4 game suspension. He will be an enormous lift, not only on the field, but emotionally as well. There is a chance that Gronk will miss the game but they won’t need him. Indianapolis is decimated by injuries and will be simply outmanned. My only hesitancy is that it looks like a trap game, but in reality the public betting action is about split. There’s always a chance of a backdoor cover when you’re laying this many points. That’s less risky here as the Pats hate the Colts and won’t let their foot off the gas.

Week 5 pick: New England-10
Season record: 4-0

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